Baltimore World Cup Soccer @ Slainte Pub

I was at Slainte Pub today to watch the Mexico – South Africa World Cup opener. It was a great crowd with a great atmosphere… Except for one minor thing.

That, my friends, is a staple of soccer games here in the United States, the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave. That is a White man wearing a “Border Patrol” tee shirt. You may have seen others wearing those shirts at soccer games. I’ve seen them mostly at games where a Mexican or Central American team comes to play. I saw plenty of them at RFK Stadium when Club America came to play DC United.

It appears that people like this man think that all Mexicans are Illegal (Undocumented) Aliens. Or that all Illegal (Undocumented) Aliens are Mexican. I am willing to bet good money that he wore the “Border Patrol” tee shirt because it was the Mexico – South Africa games. Surely, he expected Mexicans to be there. And there probably were. I was there. I’m Mexican.

Am I here illegally? Only if the health department hires illegals, the George Washington University hands out Master’s Degrees to illegals, and the University of Texas gives Science Degrees to illegals.

To balance out this Border Patrol a-hole, I met “Mario”, an American who was wearing the Mexican jersey. He cheered for Mexico when they scored, and we talked during the game. See, he wasn’t there to antagonize anyone. He was there to enjoy a game and support a team. He wasn’t there to make a statement about immigration.

(These guys would like to share their opinion on immigration issues.)

At any rate, this isn’t the first time that race and soccer have met. Samuel Eto’o's experience in Spain was horrible. How he kept playing there is beyond me. Hugo Sanchez also had a similar when he went to Europe. It still goes on today.

Then again, I could be taking it all wrong and this guy just grabbed the first tee shirt off his hamper and headed to the pub. Maybe he IS a Border Patrol agent. (Though Baltimore is hardly near a border. Customs Enforcement, maybe, I would understand.) So, unlike people who hate immigrants, I’m going to give this guy the benefit of the doubt.

But… What should I do if I see him there again with the same shirt? Call the 1-800 number on it (which leads to a hilarious rant about immigration)? Ask him for ID to prove he’s here legally? Buy him a Tequila drink?

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

…

Jason is a Baltimore soccer fanatic and web developer who apparently has too much time on his hands. This post is reblogged from his site at http://jasonthings.com/blog where he just might even write something someday.

In case you were wondering, there are 729 different ways a World Cup group can finish. That’s 729 combinations of point totals from each of the group’s four teams. I know because I’ve been obsessing over all 729 of them as I wonder whether my beloved, nicknameless USMNT squad can make my four years and get out of Group C.

Getting out of your group

Predictions about the US this year all revolve around one thing — can we get out of a pretty easy group? Most people are predicting we will.

The Soccernomics guys predict we’ll lose to Serbia in the round of 16 (see below), while EA Sports have us losing at the same spot, to Germany. Landon Donovan keeps saying we can beat England and still finish out of the top 2.

All this speculation was making me crazy, so I did what anyone would’ve done — I mapped out all 729 combinations, ran them through a PHP nested loop, and calculated the probability of getting out of the group for each possible point total.

It wasn’t quite as easy as it sounds.

The science part

If you don’t much care about math or probability, skip this section. First, the combinations. There are 6 matches played per group, in 3 rounds of 2 matches each. In each round, you have an A vs. B match and a C vs. D match. Each match can result in one of 3 outcomes.

• A wins and B loses.
• A draws with B.
• A loses and B wins.

Mathematically speaking, the outcomes look like this.

• A+3 | B+0
• A+1 | B+1
• A+0 | B+3

The same goes for the C vs. D match. That makes for 3 x 3 combinations per round. So far, so good. The 9 main combinations look like this:

I admit, at this point, I got cocky. I threw each row into an array of combinations, nested 3 foreach loops, and looped through the rows adding the A values together 3 times, the B values, etc. When it spit out exactly 729 combinations, I leapt like a Trekkie who just ran into Jonathan Frakes in the grocery store. Obscure, inexplicable joy.

But then I saw the first result: 9 0 9 0. How could two teams get 9 points in group play? Hint: it’s impossible. My formula was bogus.

It took a few hundred paces around the room and a few more drawings before I realized that you don’t play the same team 3 times in a row.  I was confused because I was calling the matches A vs. B and C vs. D, and also referring to the teams as A, B, C, and D. I switched to teams Blue, Yellow, Red, and Green.

Once I did, I realized I couldn’t just add columns A + A + A and B + B + B etc. I had to account for the different team match ups for each round. It actually looks like this:

A + A + A

B + C  + C

C + B + D

D + D + B

And while I’m sure nobody could possibly care less at this point, here’s why:

Follow each team’s rows through the 3 rounds and you’ll see how to add the correct matches together. And when you do, you get the Real Magical Spectacular List of 729 Combinations, as seen on my combos demo page. Try to hold back your tears.

So what are the chances?

Now, what the hell do you do with 729 rows of numbers? Probabilities, of course! I wanted to know 3 things:

1. What’s the chance of getting each of the point totals?
2. What’s the chance of at least having a tie-breaker situation?
3. What’s the chance of getting out of the group outright?

Number 1 was easy. By assuming our team was the Blue Team, this probability was as simple as dividing the number of times each point total appeared by 729. (And no, there’s no mistake — it’s impossible to finish with 8 points.)

A standard bell curve distribution, no surprises. You’re most likely to finish with 3 or 4 points. Which sort of sounds like you’re most likely to not make it out of your group. That’s why we need the next set of probabilities.

Question 2 above asks, for each point total, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams with less than or equal to the same amount of points that our team has? So when we score 3, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams in that combination scoring 3 or less?

Divide that — not by 729 — but by the number of combinations where the blue team scored 3, and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll have at least a tiebreaker.

Change the question to “less than” instead of “less than or equal to” and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll move out of the group outright, no tiebreakers needed.

Put it all together, and what do you get?

A few things stand out

1. The difference between 3 and 4 is huge. A win and a draw is so much better than a win and two losses.
2. If you’re only going to win once, make it big. That big orange section in the 4 point bar means there’s a large chance of going to tie-breaker. The first tie-breaker in World Cup group play is overall goal differential.In other words, if you win your first game 4 – 0, you can safely hope for a draw and a loss and still be fairly certain to make it out of the group.
3. There’s slightly more chance of getting out of the group outright with 5 points than there is with 6. Probably because 5 points means you drew twice, so there were less points around for the other teams, whereas 6 points means you lost once and gave another team 3 points instead of 1. My brain hurts.

Why anyone might care

I doubt many of you will care about all the math behind it, but after your team’s first match, take a look at this chart. It’ll give you one more way to obsess, guess, and torture yourself and your friends.

Happy World Cupping! See you at Sláinte for the US/England game this Saturday.

May the best USA team win!

Last time, I wrote to you about Honduras and how they wouldn’t make it far in the World Cup tournament. One of the reasons they won’t be going far is Chile. After finishing second in CONMEBOL qualifying, Chile is a favorite with Spain to go on to the second round. This is a bit surprising to some soccer analysts because it is a bit of a renaissance for Chile after 12 years of being absent from the World Cup finals.

(A different kind of Chilean Rennaissance)

By the way, Slainte Pub in Fells Point opens early, and you can catch Chile vs. Honduras early on June 16. Who needs to work? Come enjoy some good food, great drinks, and lots of soccer analysts fans.

Do you remember the striking duo of “ZaSa”, Zamorano and Salas? No? Neither do I. I mean, I want to say that I remember how they stood up to Italy and Brazil in France 1998, but I really can’t. Yes, they were good, but Chile’s best outing in a World Cup tournament was third place when they hosted. They haven’t really done much since. (Cue the disagreeing comments in 3… 2… 1…)

(Zsa-Zsa Gabor was also a big fan of Chile, maybe.)

But now they’re here, and they have shown to be a force to be reckoned with. Chile finished second, besting Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. They were impressive, Scoring 4 on Bolivia, 4 on Colombia, and tying Uruguay in Asuncion. With a few other wins here and there, and a couple of ties here and there, they climbed to near the top of the standings. One could say that, had Brazil not had to qualify for some weird reason, Chile could have ended at the top of CONMEBOL.

Crazy!

Forgotten are the banning from Italy 90 and USA 94. Forgotten are the failures to qualify since 98. The future is now for Chile.

My prediction for Chile in South Africa 2010:
Chile beats Honduras without any problem. Chile then beats Switzerland, just barely since European teams always cause problems for the South Americans, and vice versa. And then they lose to Spain to finish second in the group. They will then face Brazil in the knockout stage and be eliminated after putting up a great fight. (Not even Brazil beats Brazil in the round of 16.)

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

*Snipped and Edited from OutsideTheLitterBox*

AHHH! I can’t do it… I swore to myself I was going to leave it… let it be… not even poke my head in on the pub blog… but here it is.

So, the question on everyone’s mind, probably not, what’s the WC2010 looking like for LeChat? I’m figuring it’s going to be something very interesting. I’ve been asked on two different continents and an island, my thoughts so far. I, of course, hmmm and haaa, and try and get out of those conversations rather quickly; with the exception of ACMilan who has a way of interviewing me like a Daily Mail reporter at a press event.

Summed up… I’m pegging a dark horse to be asking some questions this year.

Hold on, that didn’t come out right. Let’s take a look at the groups.

A – South Africa, France, Uruguay, Mexico
First off.. I spelled Uruguay correctly the first time. To be honest, I don’t see South Africa making it out of this stage. Secondly, I think, with a bit of luck Uruguay could and will make it hard for Mexico and France.
At the end of the day – Mexico and France, no clear favorite (Allez Les Bleus)

B – Argies, Nigeria, Korea, Greece
I think this is pretty much done. Two of these squads have a good history of succeeding on the international level. The other two, I’m sorry to say, have been lucky in their runs. The only thing that could really put a damper on it, would be a finding the kryptonite that works on the Argies.
At the end of the day – Argies followed by Greeks

C – England, Estados Unidos, Algeria, Slovenia
Both England and the US have had a few players go down like zeppelins. I think one of the dark horses could come out of this group. It’s hard to pick which one though, while not necessarily a group of death as everyone likes to use that stupid term. It’s hard to see the two English speaking squads both moving on for me.
At the end of the day – England and someone else

D – Germany, Australia, Ghana, Serbs
This is probably one of the tougher ones. Germany is missing a key player but they should be safe, to say the least. Ghana is also missing a key player. The Serbs put up a good fight during the run up to the cup but from what I understand, the wind may be gone from their sails. Australia is, well, a bit cute isn’t it. *pinches Australia’s cheeks*
At the end of the day – Germany and either Ghana or Serbs as a dark horse

E – Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Well with Van Der Sloot about to serve a sentence, oh wait, I mean Robben out of the Cup… well to be honest, it shouldn’t have too much of a lasting effect. I have to say I’m pulling for Cameroon to do what they got to do, just so Eto’o can smile. He never smiles. Well maybe once he did.
At the end of the day – DUTCH and Cameroon

Coffee Break – Now why did I actually decide to do this, type all these things… I don’t know…. By the way, does anyone know where to get a good espresso downtown.

F – Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Do I really need to continue the exercise with this one? Honestly? It’s all about who will come in second. Italy has the easiest draw since Simon picked up chalk and the pictures came to life. I see the cheaters burning bright for the group, the 16 and quarters but feel they will not make further than that. I wasn’t really paying much attention to the other three in this training ground selection.
At the end of the day – Italia and reader’s choice

G – Brasil, Other Korea, Cote d’Ivoire, Portugal
When I was a wee kitten, my mom had a thing for a certain man named Pele. I should ask my mom why she didn’t just runaway and take me to Brasil. Damn her and being sensible. Of course I’d probably be running with the less than legal crowd if that did happen. Anyways, enough dreaming of beautiful Rio beaches, carnival and Ronaldhino, because none of those will be in South Africa. So I have a soft spot for Brasil, it’s something that relates to my youth, as opposed to those who go to the local sports store and put on the colors because it’s easily recognizable and acceptable in mainstream US of A. (le sigh) My second soft spot is Cote d’Ivoire. I think they will do well despite the loss of the Drogba. Portugal will be a non-threat as they do very poorly against their South American cousins and as long as Cote d’Ivoire don’t allow them to play. The only thing I’m allowed to say about Other Korea is they will win, no matter the result. I only joke about these things. They will put up a good fight but don’t have the passion or creativity to deal with the other three in their group.
At the end of the day – Brasil, Cote d’Ivoire or a surprise Portugal

H – Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile
I know Spain is tapped as the favorite by all the media. I think they’ve been in that position before… many times before. I love Spanish football, don’t get me wrong but they do have this thing about choking towards the very end of the tournament. I don’t know whether it’s an internal thing, the longing for paella and gazpacho or something else. I think Honduras is a tough team who should do well. Switzerland and Chile could go either way, but Honduras is going to be my dark horse out of this group.
At the end of the day – Spain and Honduras

Final Whistle – I figure since World Cup has now become so cliched I might as well keep it up in the blog, no? Like I said, and probably have said once or twice, the final is going to be one of the big boys, either from Europe or South America, your choice and some one unexpected. I don’t see my beloved Les Bleus making it to the final and I am hoping Domenech.. never mind I was told not to ever wish ill on someone, no matter how inept they are.

Like Eto’o said, “The question we have all the time is whether an African team is able to win the World Cup. But the real question is whether the world is ready for an African team to become champions.” (guardian)

It would be nice to see Cameroon or Cote d’Ivoire take it to the final. It will finally prove that Africa, as a continent has finally, without a doubt arrived. It has to be done with style and substance though. I see both of these teams having it, on their better days.

Serbia, might just be another surprise. If they can get back up to pace, they should at least make the 8 and possibly the 4. It would also be nice to see someone like Algeria, or Uruguay make it out of the 16 as well but that’s really stretching a wish.

Since, I can’t keep from typing these damned things, expect some more.

Ciao!
LeChat

Okay, so that title doesn’t quite have the same ring or historical significance to it as the Anglo-US rumble in the War of Independence. (And that’s all this Englishman will say about the Revolution.)

But on Saturday, the English and Americans clash again – not on the battlefield, but on the playing field at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium in Rustenberg.

I’ve had June 12, 2010 marked since the World Cup draw on December 4, 2009. Of all the possible matchups, I wanted England-USA.

The stars duly aligned for it – and on a Saturday afternoon, no less. Perfect. Hopefully, the game will live up to the hype.

Bollox to Omens

Neutral fans will probably go for the underdog USA. And if you believe in positive omens, in their only other World Cup meeting – in Brazil in 1950 – the USA shocked England, 1-0.

But bollox to omens. This time will be different. My prediction in a moment. But first…

England’s Finest (Maybe)

Having blasted through the qualifiers with nine wins and one loss, England have lost their way recently. Worryingly sluggish in warm-up games. And they always talk a great game at major tournaments, yet never back it up. They hit the quarter-finals, shit themselves and crash out on penalties.

But there is some major talent…

~ Roo-Mania: It begins and ends with Wayne Rooney – a dirty Manc, but a product of the academy at my team, Everton, and a true-blue Scouser. Fiercely competitive, strong as an ox, great off-the-ball and lights-out in the penalty area. England’s go-to guy. Former U.S. captain and Death Metal rocker lookalike – and now super-douche ESPN analyst – Alexi Lalas has urged the U.S. team to agitate Rooney and get him sent off. There’s no doubt that the feisty Roon needs to keep his cool under pressure.

~ Fabio (not the Italian girly-man model): In Fabio Capello, England finally have a highly respected and successful manager. Tactically superb, the hardline Italian is just what the players need – serious discipline and all business. He’s meticulous (even down the length of the training field grass and what the players can wear.) No WAGS. No mobile phones. No nonsense. Mess with Don Fabio and you lose.

~ Stevie G, Frankie and Barry’s Ankle: Capello finally seems to have got new captain-by-default Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard playing effectively together – and that’s down to Gareth Barry, whose defensive-midfield role allows them to play their best. Barry is coming off a sprained ankle and will be crucial to England’s hopes.

Like Lampard, though, Gerrard has never replicated his impressive club form with England in big tournaments. And now he has the captaincy. Will it be a burden for the “quiet man,” or will he embrace it? I say the latter. Gerrard is an influential, big-game player, who can dominate a game. And being captain will bring the best out of him. Also, can Lampard score a penalty? He’s lights-out for Chelsea, but shits the bed for England.

~ Crafty Cockney: Good to see Joe Cole there – an intelligent, tricky player, capable of producing magic. He’ll play on the left. On the right is Aaron Lennon – lightning fast, with great dribbling ability. England’s midfield is the strength. They can unlock defenses, give Rooney chances and score themselves.

~ Safe Hands? The problems lie in defense. Hopefully, Capello won’t pick David “Calamity” James in goal. He’s too old and too prone to dumbass mistakes for my liking. Joe Hart or Rob Green would be much better.

~ The Dodgiest Defense Since the O.J. Simpson Trial: Glen Johnson is a great attacking right-back, but forgets he’s a defender by trade. Former captain John Terry is usually a very solid central defender, but his form was erratic after he got caught with his pants down with a gal who wasn’t his wife (and the ex of former Chelsea and England team-mate, Wayne Bridge). Amid the scandal, he lost his mistress, his mate and his mojo after Capello dumped him as captain.

Naturally, the “Captain Curse” struck again for England before a tournament. Rio Ferdinand buggered his knee in a training session challenge with Emile Heskey and is done. This could be lumbering, goal-shy Heskey’s most important contribution to the cause. England have a better chance now. Rio’s fitness and form were poor and Gerrard is a better captain and big-game player. Ledley King and his dodgy knees will partner Terry. Ashley Cole is a flashy, mercenary twat who everyone loves to hate, but there’s little doubt that he’s the one of the world’s best left-backs.

Bottom Line: If England play to their potential and get some luck (and don’t go to a penalty shootout), we could go far. Here’s my regular team – a 4-1-4-1:

HART, JOHNSON, A. COLE, KING, TERRY, BARRY (but won’t play against USA), LENNON, LAMPARD, GERRARD, J. COLE, ROONEY

However, without Barry against USA, England will play 4-4-2, with Lampard and Gerrard in central midfield, with Lennon and Cole out wide. Can Gerrard and Lampard play effectively without Barry? Will the midfield track back and win the ball, or leave the defense exposed? Either no-goals, sack-o-shit Heskey or beanpole Peter Crouch will partner Rooney. Somehow, Heskey and Rooney work well together and Rooney likes him there. Jermaine Defoe will remain a super-sub.

The Damn Yankees
The USA could pose some problems for England. They’re a spirited, hard-working bunch, with some decent talent.

As an Evertonian, I’m obviously a Tim Howard fan – one of the top three goalies in the Premier League. A great shot-stopper, strong command of the box and stellar penalty-saver (Lampard would have no chance.) Defenders who make mistakes can expect a serious bollocking – Timmy’s got a ferocious mouth!

Playmaker Landon Donovan had an excellent three-month loan with Everton this season. I was skeptical, as he seemed well overrated and I’ve seen him drift out of many games. But he proved me wrong. Hard-working, energetic, good movement and skilful.

Michael Bradley is a solid two-way midfielder. Clint Dempsey is a good attacker. Carlos Bocanegra is dependable. And Jose Altidore is the USA’s answer to Heskey. But there are holes – mostly at right-back and giving teams too much time/space.

My Prediction: When the draw was made, I said 3-1 to England. I’m sticking with it. A draw (tie) would be a rather unsatisfactory anti-climax. A loss would be a national disaster. A “f**kin load of bollox,” tea-in-the-Thames, full-on shite-flinging session from the media and fans.

I look forward to the revelry with the Slainte regulars – and taking the piss out of the fair-weather, non-regular fans. See ya Saturday and may the best English team win!

Martin

Alliteration and I — oh how we are one… I saw an article on ESPN this morning and whilst thinking to myself how I loathe their juxtaposition of rerun copy – I also – find the articles digestible and engaging … like good copy should be… with that in mind… every time I run into a top 10 or 5 reasons that … or will he or won’t he — fluff piece – I am going to write my own version of it…. Here’s #1 — in response to this piece of hot old food heat…

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/columns/story?id=791137&cc=5901&ver=us

I’ll do 3 of each —

Player to watch –

Maicon - He may be turning into the best right back in the game. If Brazil win… it will be because they have Maicon. He changes the dynamic of the Brazilian game the same way Roberto Carlos used to… his ability to distribute, make runs, win balls, AND track back and not be beat is a game changer… the world and I can not wait to see him match up against the best wingers in the world… If City sign Maicon (which won’t happen) it would be a coup the likes of which you all will never hear the end of.

Robinho - I didn’t want to put 2 Brazilians in here but it has to be said that El Sauze is on a run like I’ve never seen. Then again I’ve only seen him grabbing his lady parts on the EPL pitch and crying about how he doesn’t get enough playing time and that it’s cold or that his Lamborghini isn’t the right color of candy red. But his finishing over the last 3 month in the realm of 15 goals in 7 games is pretty unreal. Granted most of them have been Brazilian goals where you could get down on all fours and nose it in — but I think Beaner has a big tourney in him and he is my outside choice for the golden boots .When he’s on… he’s one of the best in the world. And the watered down – hands off – defending of the WC should free him to be special once again.

Donovan – Is it cliche to put Lando in here? I don’t care. This dude has never been higher on himself. For the first time in his career he has the commercials, the international recognition, the love, and …almost… the talent around him to live up to all he wants. If there was ever a time for one player to shine AND be given all the credit AND deserve it’s Landycakes time. He’s been the mouth piece for American Soccer for a decade. He’s done it all right and he’s waited for this moment – I hope he gets his chance to be lifted on someone’s shoulders.

Player to flop –

Rooney – Don’t get me wrong… when Rooney is away from the Scum I adore him. If he still played for Everton I would be a part time Toffie fan. There is nothing about Rooney I don’t love… other than when he plays for United… for which I hate him… and will always hate him… but aside from that… he’s due for a blow up… There is the hope of a nation on him and while I don’t think he’ll “choke” – I do however have serious doubts about England’s ability to create… Joe Cole is his shot at a saving grace. And Joe Cole was 4th on my list of players to watch… Watching Rooney in the last cup he seemed out classed and immature… somehow – I think he’s gotten worse in that department. I think he smells his own windage and invites others to take part in it… well I smell it and I have to say it stinks. Get over yourself… you are due for a giant fall. My bold prediction is that England do not make it out of group.

Ronaldo – How does Ronaldo flop? Pretty easy… when he’s paired with bone crushers guarding him… he folds. He just does. His team has been out of form for quite some time and now without Nani — it’s not getting any better. I’ve seen it for 4 or 5 years now with Ronaldo – it’s a pretty easy formula… Bone Crusher Eastern Block winger + Ronaldo pretty boy feet of fury = Communist win — all City ever had to do was put Petrov on him and watch him disappear… his bracket won’t be a challenge to his skill (defensively- they’ll switch him or move him from Maicon) — maybe Ivory Coast… but… doubtful… however when he moves on to the round of 16 and gets paired with a smelly meat eater… and ESPN and Tommy Smythe are stroking him under the table… I vow to play a 100 that he won’t score and Portugal won’t advance.

Kaka - If ever there was a bloated super star who doesn’t vibe with his team — it would be Kaka. Him wearing the number 10 would be like Nick Swisher wearing the number 3. I have never been a big Kaka fan. Xavi is the greatest creator in the game and Kaka is loved because he’s a light skinned tall Brazilian with moments of awesome… but those moments this year were far and few between… he’ll be the first one to tell you. Kaka as a person is great. Kaka as a central midfielder is soft. I don’t think he’ll be in the mix for Brazil as much as ESPN will hype him up.

Recently, I’ve been privy to an argument—by people I like and respect—regarding rooting for a team that is not the country of your birth.  And while both sides make decent arguments, I personally feel that they’ve both missed the point. Cliché though it may be, the whole world will be watching the World Cup, and that’s what needs to be focused on.

I was in Germany for the 2006 World Cup, and when I say that that tournament was run more efficiently and smoothly (from a fan’s perspective) than Disney World, I’m not being hyperbolic. Standing in four separate security lines, I did not stop moving once. If you had a match ticket, public transportation was free for you for that day. And, as you can imagine, German public transport is excellent.

So, you may ask, why am I going to South Africa? Frankly, you get to see more of a match watching it on television than you do in the stands. To say nothing of the security risks, the cost, and the extensive travel involved.

So, you may ask, why am I going to South Africa? The simple answer is this: because many of the same people I met in Germany will be there. Maybe not those people specifically, but people like them. Like the Ghana fans who, after defeating the U.S. in the first round, decided not to gloat or rub it in, but to instead buy us beers, ask us about our families, and promise to beat Brazil on our behalf. Like the Australian fans I met at the Hofbräuhaus who had flown for 24 hours only to be in Germany for 6 hours before they returned home. Like the Russian gentleman whose hair was dyed to look like a soccer ball who didn’t speak much English, but organized a pick up game in the parking lot of our hotel. Those people are why I’m going to South Africa. I love the game, but the game is made up of people.

In a world of war, poverty, hunger, and pain, soccer/futbol/football can be a means to unite. Yes, we are all very different, but we have two things in common: 1) we are human beings and 2) we are ensorcelled with this game. This is the biggest sporting event in the world, so which would you rather focus on? The differences? Or the similarities that transcend borders, gender, race, class, culture, nationality, and politics?

It’s the Beautiful Game. For the next month or so, let’s all try to be worthy of it. In other words, God bless the whole footy world. No exceptions.

Talk about a bad draw. Honduras drew into Group H for South Africa 2010 along with Chile, Spain, and Switzerland. Can anyone say “three-and-out“? Maybe. Honduras had an interesting qualifying tournament in CONCACAF. Of the 10 games they played, they won five, tied one, and lost four. Let’s look at their wins and losses…
They went to Costa Rica, which is never easy, not even for Mexico or the USA, and lost 2-0. They went to Trinidad and Tobago, the one team everyone was supposed to walk all over, and tied 1-1. They then received Mexico and, on a very wet pitch, beat the Mexican team 3-1 (almost ensuring the exit of Sven Goran Eriksson from El Tri). Honduras then traveled to Chicago and lost against the Stars and Stripes 2-1. For the fifth game, they welcomed El Salvador and beat them 1-0. Midway through the qualifying tournament, Honduras had 7 points, one better than Mexico, three less than the US.
Qualifying seemed “iffy” at best.
For the second round of the tournament, Honduras received and dismantled Costa Rica 4-0. They did the same to Trinidad, 4-1. Honduras then traveled to Azteca Stadium and almost got away with a tie, losing 1-0. They had a major trip-up when they received team USA and lost 3-2 (with a Panamanian ref that barely got out of San Pedro Sula alive). For their last game, they had to go into El Salvador (never easy) and win to get away from a playoff against a South American team. (Or hope the US tied or beat Costa Rica.) Both things happened, and Honduras was going to South Africa.
But guess what? On December 2, 2009, Honduras was placed in Group H. Then they threw in the #2 team in the world, Spain. (Some will argue they’re the best, but I’m using the FIFA rankings here.) To make things interesting, they threw in Chile. Just for kicks, Chile finished 2nd in South American qualifying, behind Brazil. And then they added Switzerland, a European team that is not to be played with. Basically, they pulled down Honduras’ pants, bent them over a barrel, and went to work on them.

No, Honduras, you may not move on the next stage!

Then, to (literally) add injury to insult (and vice-versa), Carlos Costly (SC Vaslui), one of the best Honduran players got injured and is out of the World Cup crew.
Catch all games at Slainte Pub, and say good-bye to Honduras, even from afar, all the while enjoying good food, good drinks, and a great football soccer atmosphere.
My prediction for Honduras in South Africa: They lose to Chile, then lose to Spain, and, in a game that won’t matter, they’ll lose or tie with Switzerland. There is no way around this, folks. Chile is too strong. Spain is even stronger. And the European-style from Switzerland will give Honduras trouble. All three of Honduras’ opponents are ranked better, and are truly better. Sadly, they’ll be on their way back home come June 26th or so.
Nevertheless, Honduras has a bright future. They have been playing the “giants” (Mexico and USA) of CONCACAF very, very well in friendlies, tournaments, and qualifying. Their players are doing well in Europe. So the future is bright, Honduras. The future is bright… just not this time.

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

Maybe it’s because of the ethnic makeup of Maryland in general, and Baltimore in particular, but I don’t see that many fans of Mexican soccer around here. I surely don’t see scores of people at Slainte Pub cheering on Puebla FC, Chivas, or Club America, unless they’re playing an MLS team or an international match. It’s mostly the European, MLS, and South American clubs that get all the attention. That’s why I wasn’t surprised that no local sports outfits covered what happened in Belgium yesterday.

Yesterday, in Brussels, Belgium, Mexico and Italy faced-off in a friendly to prepare for next week’s World Cup in South Africa. The game had a good pace, and Mexico scored early, in the 16th minute, with a goal by Carlos Vela (Arsenal) after a chip-in by Gio Dos Santos (Tottenham Hotspur). It was reminiscent of their pairing during Mexico’s conquering of the u-17 World Cup a few years back. Mexico then played possession soccer, something they did great in 2002 and 2006.

We won’t talk about 2002, by the way. That was a very hard pill to swallow.

Mexico continued to dominate a game that, at times, turned a little rough. There were some hard fouls. Overall, the Italians seemed uninterested in what would happen. It was Korea-Japan 2002 all over again when Mexico and Italy played to tie in the final group stage game once they realized they were both through. In the 86th minute, Juan Carlos “El Venado” Medina (CF Monterrey) scored on a pass from veteran Cuauhtemoc Blanco (Veracruz) that beat an Italian defense that was playing the off-sides.

Italy would score on a set piece (Mexico’s Achilles’ heel) from a corner strike with five minutes left to play.

It was too late for Italy to come back, and they were not playing to do so. Mexico was in form, ready for South Africa next Friday. And I wish I could write that I’ll be optimistic of their chances as I watch in the comfort of Slainte Pub (breakfast at 7am then the game at 9am). But beating Italy is no reason to get over-confident.

Soccer around the world has come a long way, and any team could beat any other team on any given day. While some teams have masters of the game, athletes that can do magic with their feet, most professional footballers (soccer players) are just fast, fit, athletes who know the rules of the game. (Us amateurs know the rules, and that’s about it.) So a Mexico team that has been training for close to six weeks now was bound to beat Italy or any of the other teams they played to prepare.

Likewise, there are times when a team is not in the best form, and they find themselves losing. It happened with Italy yesterday. They seemed sluggish, not concentrated. Mexico held possession, yes, but they were aided by Italy’s lackluster interest in taking the ball. The errors at the set pieces just show what Italy can do if they get lucky, while Mexico needed more than luck.

So, yes, celebrate, Mexico beat the champ. But be mindful of letting it get to your head.

My prediction for Mexico in South Africa 2010: Mexico beats South Africa, loses or ties against France, and somehow manages to beat Uruguay. Mexico finishes second in the group and faces Argentina in the next round… All bets are off then since Mexico can be Argentina’s headache and Maxi Rodriguez can’t score a magical goal twice.

See you at the pub. I’ll be the only one with the Mexican jersey.

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

Is it necessary to remind you how the 98 winner won its ticket to South Africa? I don’t think so…
It has to be clarified that the controversy hit France itself. Fans lost the few confidence they had in their National team, starting booing and claiming Domenech’s head… After couple months of swimming in trouble waters, Domenech delivered a 23 roster with couple surprises: No Vieira, no Nasri, no Benzema (no Cabaye, no Rami, no Landreau

The biggest surprise, which is actually not exactly one, is Henry who will polish the bench in South Africa! That might save the atmosphere and avoid the pressure the attendance will put on France #12.

So far, Domenech will go with a 4-3-3

LLoris

Sagna – Evra (c) – Gallas – Abidal

Gourcuff – Toulalan – Malouda

Govou – Anelka – Ribery

That team should face China on Friday, June 4th in Reunion Island… Some players on the bench should have some good play time as Gignac, Cisse and Diaby and will for sure play a key roll on the field!

Now, France has to step up and prove the World they deserve their spot and Football will be even better!

I’ll see you all at the pub!

Allez les Bleus !