Carling Cup Semi Final: Liverpool (1) vs Manchester City (0)
Copa del Rey Quarter Final: Barcelona (2) vs Real Madrid (1)
International Friendly: Panama vs USMNT
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Jason is a Baltimore soccer fanatic and web developer who apparently has too much time on his hands. This post is reblogged from his site at http://jasonthings.com/blog where he just might even write something someday.
In case you were wondering, there are 729 different ways a World Cup group can finish. That’s 729 combinations of point totals from each of the group’s four teams. I know because I’ve been obsessing over all 729 of them as I wonder whether my beloved, nicknameless USMNT squad can make my four years and get out of Group C.
Predictions about the US this year all revolve around one thing — can we get out of a pretty easy group? Most people are predicting we will.
The Soccernomics guys predict we’ll lose to Serbia in the round of 16 (see below), while EA Sports have us losing at the same spot, to Germany. Landon Donovan keeps saying we can beat England and still finish out of the top 2.
All this speculation was making me crazy, so I did what anyone would’ve done — I mapped out all 729 combinations, ran them through a PHP nested loop, and calculated the probability of getting out of the group for each possible point total.
It wasn’t quite as easy as it sounds.
If you don’t much care about math or probability, skip this section. First, the combinations. There are 6 matches played per group, in 3 rounds of 2 matches each. In each round, you have an A vs. B match and a C vs. D match. Each match can result in one of 3 outcomes.
Mathematically speaking, the outcomes look like this.
The same goes for the C vs. D match. That makes for 3 x 3 combinations per round. So far, so good. The 9 main combinations look like this:
I admit, at this point, I got cocky. I threw each row into an array of combinations, nested 3 foreach loops, and looped through the rows adding the A values together 3 times, the B values, etc. When it spit out exactly 729 combinations, I leapt like a Trekkie who just ran into Jonathan Frakes in the grocery store. Obscure, inexplicable joy.
But then I saw the first result: 9 0 9 0. How could two teams get 9 points in group play? Hint: it’s impossible. My formula was bogus.
It took a few hundred paces around the room and a few more drawings before I realized that you don’t play the same team 3 times in a row. I was confused because I was calling the matches A vs. B and C vs. D, and also referring to the teams as A, B, C, and D. I switched to teams Blue, Yellow, Red, and Green.
Once I did, I realized I couldn’t just add columns A + A + A and B + B + B etc. I had to account for the different team match ups for each round. It actually looks like this:
A + A + A
B + C + C
C + B + D
D + D + B
And while I’m sure nobody could possibly care less at this point, here’s why:
Follow each team’s rows through the 3 rounds and you’ll see how to add the correct matches together. And when you do, you get the Real Magical Spectacular List of 729 Combinations, as seen on my combos demo page. Try to hold back your tears.
Now, what the hell do you do with 729 rows of numbers? Probabilities, of course! I wanted to know 3 things:
Number 1 was easy. By assuming our team was the Blue Team, this probability was as simple as dividing the number of times each point total appeared by 729. (And no, there’s no mistake — it’s impossible to finish with 8 points.)
A standard bell curve distribution, no surprises. You’re most likely to finish with 3 or 4 points. Which sort of sounds like you’re most likely to not make it out of your group. That’s why we need the next set of probabilities.
Question 2 above asks, for each point total, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams with less than or equal to the same amount of points that our team has? So when we score 3, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams in that combination scoring 3 or less?
Divide that — not by 729 — but by the number of combinations where the blue team scored 3, and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll have at least a tiebreaker.
Change the question to “less than” instead of “less than or equal to” and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll move out of the group outright, no tiebreakers needed.
Put it all together, and what do you get?
I doubt many of you will care about all the math behind it, but after your team’s first match, take a look at this chart. It’ll give you one more way to obsess, guess, and torture yourself and your friends.
Happy World Cupping! See you at Sláinte for the US/England game this Saturday.
USA World Cup Team
Goalkeepers- Tim Howard, Marcus Hahnemann, Brad Guzan
Defenders- Carlos Bocanegra, Oguchi Onyewu, Jay DeMerit, Steve Cherundolo, Jonathan Spector, Clarence Goodson, Jonathan Bornstein
Midfielders- Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley, Stuart Holden, Maurice Edu, Ricardo Clark, DaMarcus Beasley, Benny Feilhaber, Jose Francisco Torres
Forwards- Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore, Herculez Gomez, Edson Buddle, Robbie Findley
I like Buddle over Ching – lineup looks about as solid as it can – I think the 2006 lineup was one of the best we ever had – but I think this team plays more like a team — I’m looking forward to a deep run — I also Buddle and Gomez are first off the bench when Jozie can’t get it going – can’t stick with strikers in the WC too long -
Gooch had a bad wheel… you could see him taking it easy on his one leg - he’s def. not 100% which SUCKS – but he will make 23 man roster…
We are all really excited for Saturday in Philly – all the boys should be on the pitch except Howard and Dempsey -
Hope to see you all there!
USA vs Turkey
Bus Trip to Philly!
Join us on Saturday May 29th as we travel to Philadelphia with the Baltimore Brigade for the send off match for the United States National Team. This is the final match for the Yanks before they head to the World Cup in South Africa!
Tickets are limited! First come, first serve!
Only $75 includes:
- Supporters Section Ticket (seats with American Outlaws)
- Motor coach ride
- Commemorative Baltimore Brigade World Cup t-shirt
Tickets are available at Sláinte Irish Pub, where “Soccer is Religion ™”, Monday – Saturday 9:00AM-5:00PM, 1700 Thames Street, Historic Fell’s Point, Baltimore, MD 21231, (410) 563-6600.
The Match is at 2:00PM. Meeting at 7:00AM at Sláinte for breakfast. The bus will depart at 9:00AM from Sláinte and arrive early enough to tailgate with other fans from across the nation.
This is your last chance to see the Yanks in action before they depart for the World Cup!
