Baltimore World Cup Soccer @ Slainte Pub

What English lad doesn’t dream about becoming a pro footballer? Playing on the greatest stages, in the greatest stadiums, competing for the greatest prizes…

The pride. The honor. The privilege.

Except for England’s footballers when they play on the international stage, that is…

Same Old England…

English folks are well used to seeing the nation’s footballers morph from Premier League studs to international duds. No surprise there.

What was surprising, however, was the sheer scale of pitiful, pathetic shite that these lavishly paid “stars” served up against the footballing titans from Algeria last Friday. It was among the worst I’ve ever seen from an England team.

And yes… that includes the many dark days under Graham Taylor, Kevin Keegan, Sven-Goran Eriksson and Steve McLaren.

English fans can stomach a bad performance. It happens. But what’s unacceptable is a total lack of heart, emotion, passion, spirit, determination, urgency and overall will to win.

England’s players had none of those qualities against Algeria. Come to think of it, I don’t remember a single serious shot on goal or any decent moves. It was unbelievably, shockingly, embarrassingly bad.

Wayne’s World

The chorus of boos that England fans serenaded the team with were richly deserved. After all, these folks paid a lot of money to travel to South Africa.

But it was all too much for poor Wayne Rooney, with the anonymous striker only coming to life when a camera focused on him leaving the field: “It’s nice to see your home fans booing,” he whined sarcastically to the global audience and English nation.

So sorry, Wayne… didn’t mean to wake you up, lad.

He later apologized and said he was speaking out of frustration. No shit, mate. But he’d be better off shutting his piehole and trying to remedy that brutally heavy first-touch he’s suddenly contracted. It was as deft as Freddie Kruger.

Wanted: English GPS

Capello says the pressure is getting to the players. I don’t buy it. They’re not unfamiliar with big games and pressure situations, so they shouldn’t be overawed or playing scared. Not given the opposition so far. Surely they’re not that mentally fragile?

What’s worrying, though, is that these are the same players who breezed through qualifying with nine wins and one loss, playing confidently, freely and with flair. So what’s up? Over to you, Fabio…

“It is a problem because these players have trained very well. But in the two games it’s not the same team that I know.”

It’s unrealistic to think that they’ve suddenly become bad players. But as I said in my last post, they constantly talk a great game, but never back it up in major tournaments. Right now, the England “team” isn’t really a team at all. It’s a collection of individuals on safari. It’s a highly frustrating and depressingly familiar situation.

Confused Capello and Tosser Terry

I thought Capello was supposed to be tactically astute. But like the players, he’s suddenly morphed from stud to dud and is all over the place.

He wants them to play the high-tempo, Premier League-style game. I agree. But he’s confused…

“I don’t understand why during a game, we don’t change the rhythm or speed. We are really slow. If you don’t run or press or fight, it is difficult to go forward.”

So why is the team doing the exact opposite of his instructions – toiling through a slow, plodding, indirect game? And why is a highly successful coach (on a five million quid salary, no less) confused and unable to figure it out?

To compound the malaise, Knobhead-in-Chief John Terry attempted a mutiny by publicly saying that some players are unhappy with Capello’s strict, disciplined regime, team selection and tactics (including the omission of Joe Cole and naming the team two hours before kickoff) and that they wanted “clear-the-air” talks:

“Everyone needs to get off their chest exactly how they’re feeling. If it upsets him [Capello], or it upsets any player, then so be it.”

As if Terry wasn’t despised enough already in English football for his off-the-field antics, he’s stepped up again with another display of egotism and stupidity. Aside from forgetting that he’s not captain any more – and his outburst seems rooted in bitterness and resentment about Capello taking it from him – it’s embarrassingly backfired, since he clearly didn’t have as much player support as he thought. His Chelsea mate, Frank Lampard, moved to downplay the “clear-the-air,” confrontational stuff and suggestions of a rift. And Capello himself has slapped Terry back into place and criticized him for going public instead of doing it privately.

Oh, and the players are bored at their hotel/training complex, too. All there is to do in the five-star, luxury surroundings is train, eat, sleep, swim and play games. Poor f**kers.

The point about team selection and tactics is valid, though – the whole country is questioning them…

X’s and O’s

Against Algeria (and the USA, for that matter), Rooney was drifting back to central-midfield. Heskey popped up at right-back, punting long balls to the towering Aaron Lennon. Gerrard and Lampard were again shadows of their Premier League selves. Johnson and Cole – two of the best attacking full-backs in the tournament – provided zero attacking threat. Elsewhere…

~ Why does Wright-Phillips replace Lennon? They’re the same player! Neither can cross the ball and they obviously see the corner flag as a nymphomaniac supermodel, luring them towards it, only to grab their balls when they get there!

~ Why hasn’t Joe Cole – a skillful, tricky player who’s done well for England before and can “unlock a defence” (as Terry put it) – played a single minute?

~ Why is Gerrard drifting aimlessly on the left? It ain’t working – and he’s not happy there, which is why he keeps drifting back towards the middle! Change it.

We need to play a 4-4-1-1 formation. Heskey is supposedly playing because he works well with Rooney. Well, that ain’t working either – and he’s certainly not going to score goals.

Play J. Cole on the left, so Gerrard can move into the middle behind Rooney. This would also give Ashley Cole more support coming forward and beef up the left side. Use Barry as protection for the defence and get the midfielders forward quicker to support Rooney. (Oh, and if it’s not too much to ask, play with some passion, spirit, movement and will to win.) We have the players to do this – they routinely do it for their clubs. It ain’t rocket science, so why can’t Capello see this?

Capello simultaneously signals for England to “piss off” and that he’s sticking with two up front… including Heskey.

And so, it’s come to this…

London Calling?

Like the USA, England control their destiny: A win will guarantee progress to Round 2. The best-case scenario is that they both win.

Ridiculously – and almost unbelievably, given the current shambles – England can actually win the group if they win by a greater margin than the USA on Wednesday.

And given the way the group stands and the possible scenarios, there’s actually little margin for anything other than a win. Failure would mean this becomes the first England team to fall at the World Cup’s first hurdle since 1958. Heathrow and the wrath of England would beckon and Capello would probably resign.

If there are bright sides here…

~ While England look clueless going forward, the defence – supposedly our weak link – looks solid. Aside from Rob Green’s blunder and the USA shot that hit the post, England’s goalies have had nothing to do.

~ Carragher is suspended for the Slovenia game, so Upson will partner Terry. Upson isn’t great, but he’s Bobby Moore compared to Carragher.

~ Maybe playing against a European team will be more to England’s liking. If this were a qualifying game, we’d be expected to win, either home or away.

~ In the 1990 World Cup, England started with two draws and needed to beat Egypt in the final group game to progress. They did. Back then, the players were also unhappy with the formation and style of play and held talks with the management team. After changes, the team rolled all the way to the semi-final.

Desperate? Clutching at straws? Maybe. Especially since Capello is still searching for his team: “I hope in the next game we forget these two performances. On Wednesday, I hope to see the England team.”

Yes, I hope so too, mate. It would be nice if they showed up this time. The English will take anything we can get at the moment. And most of all… a win.

Martin

So Paraguay and Italy tied at 1-1 on their first group game. Big deal? Well, actually, it is a big deal. Italy, after all, are the current World Champions. However, we need to look at a couple of things before we go proclaiming that the King is dead (and/or long live the King)…

Italy doesn’t seem to do well in the group stage. I believe the have the same syndrome that Mexico has. They play the bad teams bad and the good teams great. Remember back in 1994? They lost 1-0 to the Republic of Ireland. They barely beat Norway 1-0. And then they tied Mexico 1-1. Not a really good group showing, right? But they made it to the final only to lose to Brazil in a penalty shootout.

(Go cry me a river, Baggio... Cry me a river!)

And what about Corea/Japan 2002? They beat Ecuador 2-0, lose to Croatia (CROATIA!?) 2-1, and then, just like in ’94, they tied Mexico 1-1. I remember that game. I remember screaming at the screen as Italy and Mexico just decided not to play once they knew the score of the Croatia-Ecuador game. They would later lose to co-hosts Korea.

(Korean food is much better than spaghetti, manicotti, ravioli... And, in 2002, they were better at soccer)

That Korean food doesn’t beat Slainte Pub‘s, though. Try the breakfast while watching the morning matches. (Menu here.)

In 2006, Italy were a little stronger in the group stage. They beat Ghana 2-0, tied the USA 1-1, and then finished the group stage by beating the Czech Republic 2-0. They would go on to beat Australia, Ukraine, and hosts Germany, before facing France in the final. Who can forget that final with Zidane head-butting Materazzi over some Italian comment about Zidane’s mother (maybe).

(Indeed.)

So what’s next for Italy? Certainly, they will play better. The weaker teams (Slovakia and New Zealand) are coming up in the group stage. We’ve seen Italy climb out of adversity before. Surely, they will do it again.

Right? Right?

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

So first thoughts of the World Cup are tough. It’s not usual for us fans of the round ball to have so many inputs from so many angles. With that said these are my first impressions —

1. Holland will win it all.
2. Spain is ridiculously talented and I can guarantee Cesc is in the starting 11 next game.
3. I thought Germany’s performance was exciting but unconvincing. I still don’t like the way their midfield interacts but… they play like German cars run… well.
4. South Korea looked like a true team out there… they are going to be tough to beat.
5. England will be England and get through… I think they are due for a huge crushing of a side.
6. I think the USA will struggle in their next match and will not make it through. Lando has to carry this team and who knows how bad Timmy Ho’s injury is…
7. First matches in the World Cup usually produce the biggest upsets and the lowest scores… and I think we’ve sort of seen that. Teams play tight. It’s a new atmosphere — I think in Round 2 and 3 we’ll see many more highlights of the beautiful game. Especially from the like of Ronaldo and Messi — I think Ronaldo is due for an unreal goal — he looks determined. His team looks meh…

That is all — see you down the pub on Friday.

B

I was at Slainte Pub today to watch the Mexico – South Africa World Cup opener. It was a great crowd with a great atmosphere… Except for one minor thing.

That, my friends, is a staple of soccer games here in the United States, the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave. That is a White man wearing a “Border Patrol” tee shirt. You may have seen others wearing those shirts at soccer games. I’ve seen them mostly at games where a Mexican or Central American team comes to play. I saw plenty of them at RFK Stadium when Club America came to play DC United.

It appears that people like this man think that all Mexicans are Illegal (Undocumented) Aliens. Or that all Illegal (Undocumented) Aliens are Mexican. I am willing to bet good money that he wore the “Border Patrol” tee shirt because it was the Mexico – South Africa games. Surely, he expected Mexicans to be there. And there probably were. I was there. I’m Mexican.

Am I here illegally? Only if the health department hires illegals, the George Washington University hands out Master’s Degrees to illegals, and the University of Texas gives Science Degrees to illegals.

To balance out this Border Patrol a-hole, I met “Mario”, an American who was wearing the Mexican jersey. He cheered for Mexico when they scored, and we talked during the game. See, he wasn’t there to antagonize anyone. He was there to enjoy a game and support a team. He wasn’t there to make a statement about immigration.

(These guys would like to share their opinion on immigration issues.)

At any rate, this isn’t the first time that race and soccer have met. Samuel Eto’o's experience in Spain was horrible. How he kept playing there is beyond me. Hugo Sanchez also had a similar when he went to Europe. It still goes on today.

Then again, I could be taking it all wrong and this guy just grabbed the first tee shirt off his hamper and headed to the pub. Maybe he IS a Border Patrol agent. (Though Baltimore is hardly near a border. Customs Enforcement, maybe, I would understand.) So, unlike people who hate immigrants, I’m going to give this guy the benefit of the doubt.

But… What should I do if I see him there again with the same shirt? Call the 1-800 number on it (which leads to a hilarious rant about immigration)? Ask him for ID to prove he’s here legally? Buy him a Tequila drink?

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

…

Jason is a Baltimore soccer fanatic and web developer who apparently has too much time on his hands. This post is reblogged from his site at http://jasonthings.com/blog where he just might even write something someday.

In case you were wondering, there are 729 different ways a World Cup group can finish. That’s 729 combinations of point totals from each of the group’s four teams. I know because I’ve been obsessing over all 729 of them as I wonder whether my beloved, nicknameless USMNT squad can make my four years and get out of Group C.

Getting out of your group

Predictions about the US this year all revolve around one thing — can we get out of a pretty easy group? Most people are predicting we will.

The Soccernomics guys predict we’ll lose to Serbia in the round of 16 (see below), while EA Sports have us losing at the same spot, to Germany. Landon Donovan keeps saying we can beat England and still finish out of the top 2.

All this speculation was making me crazy, so I did what anyone would’ve done — I mapped out all 729 combinations, ran them through a PHP nested loop, and calculated the probability of getting out of the group for each possible point total.

It wasn’t quite as easy as it sounds.

The science part

If you don’t much care about math or probability, skip this section. First, the combinations. There are 6 matches played per group, in 3 rounds of 2 matches each. In each round, you have an A vs. B match and a C vs. D match. Each match can result in one of 3 outcomes.

• A wins and B loses.
• A draws with B.
• A loses and B wins.

Mathematically speaking, the outcomes look like this.

• A+3 | B+0
• A+1 | B+1
• A+0 | B+3

The same goes for the C vs. D match. That makes for 3 x 3 combinations per round. So far, so good. The 9 main combinations look like this:

I admit, at this point, I got cocky. I threw each row into an array of combinations, nested 3 foreach loops, and looped through the rows adding the A values together 3 times, the B values, etc. When it spit out exactly 729 combinations, I leapt like a Trekkie who just ran into Jonathan Frakes in the grocery store. Obscure, inexplicable joy.

But then I saw the first result: 9 0 9 0. How could two teams get 9 points in group play? Hint: it’s impossible. My formula was bogus.

It took a few hundred paces around the room and a few more drawings before I realized that you don’t play the same team 3 times in a row.  I was confused because I was calling the matches A vs. B and C vs. D, and also referring to the teams as A, B, C, and D. I switched to teams Blue, Yellow, Red, and Green.

Once I did, I realized I couldn’t just add columns A + A + A and B + B + B etc. I had to account for the different team match ups for each round. It actually looks like this:

A + A + A

B + C  + C

C + B + D

D + D + B

And while I’m sure nobody could possibly care less at this point, here’s why:

Follow each team’s rows through the 3 rounds and you’ll see how to add the correct matches together. And when you do, you get the Real Magical Spectacular List of 729 Combinations, as seen on my combos demo page. Try to hold back your tears.

So what are the chances?

Now, what the hell do you do with 729 rows of numbers? Probabilities, of course! I wanted to know 3 things:

1. What’s the chance of getting each of the point totals?
2. What’s the chance of at least having a tie-breaker situation?
3. What’s the chance of getting out of the group outright?

Number 1 was easy. By assuming our team was the Blue Team, this probability was as simple as dividing the number of times each point total appeared by 729. (And no, there’s no mistake — it’s impossible to finish with 8 points.)

A standard bell curve distribution, no surprises. You’re most likely to finish with 3 or 4 points. Which sort of sounds like you’re most likely to not make it out of your group. That’s why we need the next set of probabilities.

Question 2 above asks, for each point total, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams with less than or equal to the same amount of points that our team has? So when we score 3, how many combinations show at least 2 other teams in that combination scoring 3 or less?

Divide that — not by 729 — but by the number of combinations where the blue team scored 3, and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll have at least a tiebreaker.

Change the question to “less than” instead of “less than or equal to” and you get the probability that, when scoring 3, you’ll move out of the group outright, no tiebreakers needed.

Put it all together, and what do you get?

A few things stand out

1. The difference between 3 and 4 is huge. A win and a draw is so much better than a win and two losses.
2. If you’re only going to win once, make it big. That big orange section in the 4 point bar means there’s a large chance of going to tie-breaker. The first tie-breaker in World Cup group play is overall goal differential.In other words, if you win your first game 4 – 0, you can safely hope for a draw and a loss and still be fairly certain to make it out of the group.
3. There’s slightly more chance of getting out of the group outright with 5 points than there is with 6. Probably because 5 points means you drew twice, so there were less points around for the other teams, whereas 6 points means you lost once and gave another team 3 points instead of 1. My brain hurts.

Why anyone might care

I doubt many of you will care about all the math behind it, but after your team’s first match, take a look at this chart. It’ll give you one more way to obsess, guess, and torture yourself and your friends.

Happy World Cupping! See you at Sláinte for the US/England game this Saturday.

May the best USA team win!

Last time, I wrote to you about Honduras and how they wouldn’t make it far in the World Cup tournament. One of the reasons they won’t be going far is Chile. After finishing second in CONMEBOL qualifying, Chile is a favorite with Spain to go on to the second round. This is a bit surprising to some soccer analysts because it is a bit of a renaissance for Chile after 12 years of being absent from the World Cup finals.

(A different kind of Chilean Rennaissance)

By the way, Slainte Pub in Fells Point opens early, and you can catch Chile vs. Honduras early on June 16. Who needs to work? Come enjoy some good food, great drinks, and lots of soccer analysts fans.

Do you remember the striking duo of “ZaSa”, Zamorano and Salas? No? Neither do I. I mean, I want to say that I remember how they stood up to Italy and Brazil in France 1998, but I really can’t. Yes, they were good, but Chile’s best outing in a World Cup tournament was third place when they hosted. They haven’t really done much since. (Cue the disagreeing comments in 3… 2… 1…)

(Zsa-Zsa Gabor was also a big fan of Chile, maybe.)

But now they’re here, and they have shown to be a force to be reckoned with. Chile finished second, besting Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. They were impressive, Scoring 4 on Bolivia, 4 on Colombia, and tying Uruguay in Asuncion. With a few other wins here and there, and a couple of ties here and there, they climbed to near the top of the standings. One could say that, had Brazil not had to qualify for some weird reason, Chile could have ended at the top of CONMEBOL.

Crazy!

Forgotten are the banning from Italy 90 and USA 94. Forgotten are the failures to qualify since 98. The future is now for Chile.

My prediction for Chile in South Africa 2010:
Chile beats Honduras without any problem. Chile then beats Switzerland, just barely since European teams always cause problems for the South Americans, and vice versa. And then they lose to Spain to finish second in the group. They will then face Brazil in the knockout stage and be eliminated after putting up a great fight. (Not even Brazil beats Brazil in the round of 16.)

***”Paquinho” was born and raised in Mexico until age 10, when he came to the States and has been living the dream. When not writing about soccer, you can find him rambling on about infectious diseases.***

*Snipped and Edited from OutsideTheLitterBox*

AHHH! I can’t do it… I swore to myself I was going to leave it… let it be… not even poke my head in on the pub blog… but here it is.

So, the question on everyone’s mind, probably not, what’s the WC2010 looking like for LeChat? I’m figuring it’s going to be something very interesting. I’ve been asked on two different continents and an island, my thoughts so far. I, of course, hmmm and haaa, and try and get out of those conversations rather quickly; with the exception of ACMilan who has a way of interviewing me like a Daily Mail reporter at a press event.

Summed up… I’m pegging a dark horse to be asking some questions this year.

Hold on, that didn’t come out right. Let’s take a look at the groups.

A – South Africa, France, Uruguay, Mexico
First off.. I spelled Uruguay correctly the first time. To be honest, I don’t see South Africa making it out of this stage. Secondly, I think, with a bit of luck Uruguay could and will make it hard for Mexico and France.
At the end of the day – Mexico and France, no clear favorite (Allez Les Bleus)

B – Argies, Nigeria, Korea, Greece
I think this is pretty much done. Two of these squads have a good history of succeeding on the international level. The other two, I’m sorry to say, have been lucky in their runs. The only thing that could really put a damper on it, would be a finding the kryptonite that works on the Argies.
At the end of the day – Argies followed by Greeks

C – England, Estados Unidos, Algeria, Slovenia
Both England and the US have had a few players go down like zeppelins. I think one of the dark horses could come out of this group. It’s hard to pick which one though, while not necessarily a group of death as everyone likes to use that stupid term. It’s hard to see the two English speaking squads both moving on for me.
At the end of the day – England and someone else

D – Germany, Australia, Ghana, Serbs
This is probably one of the tougher ones. Germany is missing a key player but they should be safe, to say the least. Ghana is also missing a key player. The Serbs put up a good fight during the run up to the cup but from what I understand, the wind may be gone from their sails. Australia is, well, a bit cute isn’t it. *pinches Australia’s cheeks*
At the end of the day – Germany and either Ghana or Serbs as a dark horse

E – Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Well with Van Der Sloot about to serve a sentence, oh wait, I mean Robben out of the Cup… well to be honest, it shouldn’t have too much of a lasting effect. I have to say I’m pulling for Cameroon to do what they got to do, just so Eto’o can smile. He never smiles. Well maybe once he did.
At the end of the day – DUTCH and Cameroon

Coffee Break – Now why did I actually decide to do this, type all these things… I don’t know…. By the way, does anyone know where to get a good espresso downtown.

F – Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Do I really need to continue the exercise with this one? Honestly? It’s all about who will come in second. Italy has the easiest draw since Simon picked up chalk and the pictures came to life. I see the cheaters burning bright for the group, the 16 and quarters but feel they will not make further than that. I wasn’t really paying much attention to the other three in this training ground selection.
At the end of the day – Italia and reader’s choice

G – Brasil, Other Korea, Cote d’Ivoire, Portugal
When I was a wee kitten, my mom had a thing for a certain man named Pele. I should ask my mom why she didn’t just runaway and take me to Brasil. Damn her and being sensible. Of course I’d probably be running with the less than legal crowd if that did happen. Anyways, enough dreaming of beautiful Rio beaches, carnival and Ronaldhino, because none of those will be in South Africa. So I have a soft spot for Brasil, it’s something that relates to my youth, as opposed to those who go to the local sports store and put on the colors because it’s easily recognizable and acceptable in mainstream US of A. (le sigh) My second soft spot is Cote d’Ivoire. I think they will do well despite the loss of the Drogba. Portugal will be a non-threat as they do very poorly against their South American cousins and as long as Cote d’Ivoire don’t allow them to play. The only thing I’m allowed to say about Other Korea is they will win, no matter the result. I only joke about these things. They will put up a good fight but don’t have the passion or creativity to deal with the other three in their group.
At the end of the day – Brasil, Cote d’Ivoire or a surprise Portugal

H – Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile
I know Spain is tapped as the favorite by all the media. I think they’ve been in that position before… many times before. I love Spanish football, don’t get me wrong but they do have this thing about choking towards the very end of the tournament. I don’t know whether it’s an internal thing, the longing for paella and gazpacho or something else. I think Honduras is a tough team who should do well. Switzerland and Chile could go either way, but Honduras is going to be my dark horse out of this group.
At the end of the day – Spain and Honduras

Final Whistle – I figure since World Cup has now become so cliched I might as well keep it up in the blog, no? Like I said, and probably have said once or twice, the final is going to be one of the big boys, either from Europe or South America, your choice and some one unexpected. I don’t see my beloved Les Bleus making it to the final and I am hoping Domenech.. never mind I was told not to ever wish ill on someone, no matter how inept they are.

Like Eto’o said, “The question we have all the time is whether an African team is able to win the World Cup. But the real question is whether the world is ready for an African team to become champions.” (guardian)

It would be nice to see Cameroon or Cote d’Ivoire take it to the final. It will finally prove that Africa, as a continent has finally, without a doubt arrived. It has to be done with style and substance though. I see both of these teams having it, on their better days.

Serbia, might just be another surprise. If they can get back up to pace, they should at least make the 8 and possibly the 4. It would also be nice to see someone like Algeria, or Uruguay make it out of the 16 as well but that’s really stretching a wish.

Since, I can’t keep from typing these damned things, expect some more.

Ciao!
LeChat

Okay, so that title doesn’t quite have the same ring or historical significance to it as the Anglo-US rumble in the War of Independence. (And that’s all this Englishman will say about the Revolution.)

But on Saturday, the English and Americans clash again – not on the battlefield, but on the playing field at the Royal Bafokeng Stadium in Rustenberg.

I’ve had June 12, 2010 marked since the World Cup draw on December 4, 2009. Of all the possible matchups, I wanted England-USA.

The stars duly aligned for it – and on a Saturday afternoon, no less. Perfect. Hopefully, the game will live up to the hype.

Bollox to Omens

Neutral fans will probably go for the underdog USA. And if you believe in positive omens, in their only other World Cup meeting – in Brazil in 1950 – the USA shocked England, 1-0.

But bollox to omens. This time will be different. My prediction in a moment. But first…

England’s Finest (Maybe)

Having blasted through the qualifiers with nine wins and one loss, England have lost their way recently. Worryingly sluggish in warm-up games. And they always talk a great game at major tournaments, yet never back it up. They hit the quarter-finals, shit themselves and crash out on penalties.

But there is some major talent…

~ Roo-Mania: It begins and ends with Wayne Rooney – a dirty Manc, but a product of the academy at my team, Everton, and a true-blue Scouser. Fiercely competitive, strong as an ox, great off-the-ball and lights-out in the penalty area. England’s go-to guy. Former U.S. captain and Death Metal rocker lookalike – and now super-douche ESPN analyst – Alexi Lalas has urged the U.S. team to agitate Rooney and get him sent off. There’s no doubt that the feisty Roon needs to keep his cool under pressure.

~ Fabio (not the Italian girly-man model): In Fabio Capello, England finally have a highly respected and successful manager. Tactically superb, the hardline Italian is just what the players need – serious discipline and all business. He’s meticulous (even down the length of the training field grass and what the players can wear.) No WAGS. No mobile phones. No nonsense. Mess with Don Fabio and you lose.

~ Stevie G, Frankie and Barry’s Ankle: Capello finally seems to have got new captain-by-default Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard playing effectively together – and that’s down to Gareth Barry, whose defensive-midfield role allows them to play their best. Barry is coming off a sprained ankle and will be crucial to England’s hopes.

Like Lampard, though, Gerrard has never replicated his impressive club form with England in big tournaments. And now he has the captaincy. Will it be a burden for the “quiet man,” or will he embrace it? I say the latter. Gerrard is an influential, big-game player, who can dominate a game. And being captain will bring the best out of him. Also, can Lampard score a penalty? He’s lights-out for Chelsea, but shits the bed for England.

~ Crafty Cockney: Good to see Joe Cole there – an intelligent, tricky player, capable of producing magic. He’ll play on the left. On the right is Aaron Lennon – lightning fast, with great dribbling ability. England’s midfield is the strength. They can unlock defenses, give Rooney chances and score themselves.

~ Safe Hands? The problems lie in defense. Hopefully, Capello won’t pick David “Calamity” James in goal. He’s too old and too prone to dumbass mistakes for my liking. Joe Hart or Rob Green would be much better.

~ The Dodgiest Defense Since the O.J. Simpson Trial: Glen Johnson is a great attacking right-back, but forgets he’s a defender by trade. Former captain John Terry is usually a very solid central defender, but his form was erratic after he got caught with his pants down with a gal who wasn’t his wife (and the ex of former Chelsea and England team-mate, Wayne Bridge). Amid the scandal, he lost his mistress, his mate and his mojo after Capello dumped him as captain.

Naturally, the “Captain Curse” struck again for England before a tournament. Rio Ferdinand buggered his knee in a training session challenge with Emile Heskey and is done. This could be lumbering, goal-shy Heskey’s most important contribution to the cause. England have a better chance now. Rio’s fitness and form were poor and Gerrard is a better captain and big-game player. Ledley King and his dodgy knees will partner Terry. Ashley Cole is a flashy, mercenary twat who everyone loves to hate, but there’s little doubt that he’s the one of the world’s best left-backs.

Bottom Line: If England play to their potential and get some luck (and don’t go to a penalty shootout), we could go far. Here’s my regular team – a 4-1-4-1:

HART, JOHNSON, A. COLE, KING, TERRY, BARRY (but won’t play against USA), LENNON, LAMPARD, GERRARD, J. COLE, ROONEY

However, without Barry against USA, England will play 4-4-2, with Lampard and Gerrard in central midfield, with Lennon and Cole out wide. Can Gerrard and Lampard play effectively without Barry? Will the midfield track back and win the ball, or leave the defense exposed? Either no-goals, sack-o-shit Heskey or beanpole Peter Crouch will partner Rooney. Somehow, Heskey and Rooney work well together and Rooney likes him there. Jermaine Defoe will remain a super-sub.

The Damn Yankees
The USA could pose some problems for England. They’re a spirited, hard-working bunch, with some decent talent.

As an Evertonian, I’m obviously a Tim Howard fan – one of the top three goalies in the Premier League. A great shot-stopper, strong command of the box and stellar penalty-saver (Lampard would have no chance.) Defenders who make mistakes can expect a serious bollocking – Timmy’s got a ferocious mouth!

Playmaker Landon Donovan had an excellent three-month loan with Everton this season. I was skeptical, as he seemed well overrated and I’ve seen him drift out of many games. But he proved me wrong. Hard-working, energetic, good movement and skilful.

Michael Bradley is a solid two-way midfielder. Clint Dempsey is a good attacker. Carlos Bocanegra is dependable. And Jose Altidore is the USA’s answer to Heskey. But there are holes – mostly at right-back and giving teams too much time/space.

My Prediction: When the draw was made, I said 3-1 to England. I’m sticking with it. A draw (tie) would be a rather unsatisfactory anti-climax. A loss would be a national disaster. A “f**kin load of bollox,” tea-in-the-Thames, full-on shite-flinging session from the media and fans.

I look forward to the revelry with the Slainte regulars – and taking the piss out of the fair-weather, non-regular fans. See ya Saturday and may the best English team win!

Martin